The main reason why it is unlikely that a woman will become a marja' today is not theoretical, since there may be many approaches to Islamic law, but rather is practical. That is, there are social forces that would push a woman off of the path of becoming a marja', and women do not have the same networking, educational, or social support that men have and which people need to succeed in any field. (Although some Iranian women become mujtahids and there are structures in place in Iran to facilitate that, less so in other countries although it occurs in other countries also.) Furthermore, women who are religiously conservative are generally encouraged to avoid positions of public leadership or to avoid being publicly visible.
Maybe in the future it will be different.
However, it is worth considering that there are many forms of religious and spiritual leadership. While we focus mostly on the role of the marja' as the chief jurist, or chief legal expert, people require guidance and leadership in many areas of life, including family matters, spiritual guidance, ethics, politics, charitable work, and so forth. Some marja's do offer guidance in these areas also but not all do, as it is not possible for one person to specialize in every single thing or to do every single thing at one time. Furthermore, even within the Islamic sciences, there are other areas of expertise that are also important such as tafsir. So it is also valuable to become a leader or expert in other areas of religion, not only jurisprudence/law.
Taqleed is based on the logical necessity for the non expert to refer to the expert.
This is followed in every field of knowledge in life. All human beings practically follow this fact in every matter. Religious day to day rules are not an exception. Non experts in religious studies need to follow the experts. We believe that every religious act must be based on real evidence. Evidence is known to the experts who spend long time in studying and researching the Islamic sources ( Quran, Hadeeth, Aql and Ejmaa'). People must refer in religious matters to the most learned Islamic scholar who is called al-'Alam.
From the time of the Prophet (SAWA) and the Ifallible Imams, Muslims who lived in places far away from them, were ordered to refer in religious matters to the scholar in their area.
Taqleed is obligatory on non experts in religious studies (non Mujahid or non Muhtaat). With out Taqleed, non expert will practice religious acts with out authentic evidence and this is not accepted in Islam.
Allah is The Absolute Wise and He has the Full Knowledge about everything and everyone. All rules in Islam are based on the absolute Wisdom and Knowledge and Mercy of Allah which aims for the interest of man and human kind.
illegitimately born child has no fault to be punished for, and he should be saved from social criticism. This might be one of the reasons that such person should not be exposed in public as leader of prayers or leader of society ( Marja' of Taqleed).
Keeping him away from regions leadership might be also for avoiding legitimising the sinful act from which he was born and not encouraging people to commit it.
Finally, we say that Allah is The Most Just, Most Wise, Most Merciful and He Knows the full reasons, but we firmly believe that it is always for the interest of man and mankind.
Every Muslim needs to have authentic evidence that he is acting upon the orders of Islam in every religious act and deed. Such evidence can not be available to non professional person unless he relies on the verdict of professional scholar (Mujtahid). That is why Taqleed is compulsory on every non professional Muslim otherwise his religious deeds will be with out supporting evidence, which means that it can be not correct.
When you follow the most learned scholar, you will not be responsible if he makes an error as your responsibility is just to act upon the verdict and evidence derived by the most learned scholar.
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