Thank you for your question. There is no level
of certainty in which anyone can judge God's mind, but God doesn't punish believers unless that is better for them to face something hard in this world rather than the next. In that sense it is better to treat the issue as a trial when the factors effecting your situation are not in your hands, because when facing something difficult with the mindset of it being a trial, the important thing is to concentrate on your response. And that response is putting your hope in God, being patient and trying to reconcile and strengthen your faith. God only puts a believer in the best situation for them, and while it may not be easy or possible to see that in the moment, the wisdom of Gods actions will reveal themselves in time. If the situation is a result of your own actions, it still holds true that what you should focus on is your response to the situation at hand, as it is through the cultivation of these traits that life will inevitably improve. Difficulties affect people in two ways broadly speaking. Some are crushed by them and can never quite recover. Others are forced to dig deep and emerge stronger.
May Allah grant you every success in this world and the next.