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It is difficult to answer the question of "who is right" since everyone thinks their religion is right! Answering the question of "who is orthodox?" also brings up the question of who has the right to determine what is orthodox.

(Keeping in mind many Muslims consider all Shi'is to be unorthodox!)

Anyway, as you say, many people today consider the strongly fiqh-based approach to Twelver Shi'ism (i.e. the first stream of thought, in that Shaykhism also emerges from that line) to be the "mainstream" or "orthodox" one.

It is also argued by scholars of religious history that Alawism and Alevism are heavily syncretic religions (i.e. strong mixes of Islam/Shiism and other religions). My understanding is that some Nimatullahis self-identify in this way today (that is, as strongly integrating beliefs prior to Islam), but I don't know if that reflects the whole tradition, and, in any case, just because a belief is ancient does not necessarily mean that it is wrong. However, it could be construed as "less orthodox" insofar as it there is no evidence that it comes down a direct line from the Prophet/Twelve Imams. 

My impression has always been that today's Alawism and Alevism are more "cultural religions", i.e. they are practiced in some areas as local traditions but don't absorb outsiders easily. 

Anyway, my view on this is, firstly, to follow the advice of Imam Ali (A) - namely, first know the truth, and then you will come to know the people who are on the truth.

Second, insofar as Islam is a scriptural religion, you can read Qur'an and hadith, especially the Qur'an, and compare the beliefs and practices of these different groups and see what seems to fit best with it.

Third, there is no harm in taking what is good from different places. If you have the option to practice Shi'ism in one or more of these interpretations, you can see what leads you to the truth, what beliefs and practices are healthy or unhealthy, which reflect the spirit of the Qur'an, what you think best reflects the intent of the Prophet (S), etc.

Lastly, of course, seek divine guidance.

Usually we already know what is true and the kernel of the answer is already in our heart, but sometimes we aren't ready to act on it yet, and we have to wait until the time when we are ready to acknowledge whatever we know is true. 

In the early period, the word 'shi'a' was understood simply to mean 'follower'. Hence there were those known as the shi 'a of Mu'awiya, the shi'a of 'Uthman and the shi'a of 'Ali [as].  In the early period there was fierce debate as to who could be categorised as a Shi'a of 'Ali [as]. Sunnis who considered him superior to the first three khulafa were known as Shi'a of 'Ali. Due to propaganda and war, any such slight inclination towards Imam Ali [as] could mean being accused of being one his Shi'a. From the persepective of the Imams, their Shi'a were those that were utterly trustworthy, and intelligent enough to imbibe their teachings. People who simply loved the Imams were generally known as 'lovers and supporters' and were appreciated by the Imams, but could be of little use to them because of their lack of capacity to imbibe knowledge and be absolutely trustworthy. There is a narration of Imam al-Sadiq [as] that says '‘a simple profession of love for us (walayah) does not turn a person into a follower (shi‘a), rather those who profess love simply diminish the solitude of our followers.’ (Usul al-Kafi, Vol. 3)

People have always sought to arrange people into groups and to declare which are correct or not correct, or orthodox or not orthodox. First of all, what do you mean by 'orthodox'? Secondly, the Usuli and Akhbari both accuse each other of heterodoxy. Both are Twelver Shi'a. The Shaykhis are Twelver Shi'a and the Ni'matullahis are Sufis and are also Twelver Shi'a, except that one branch of the Ni'matullahis praises 'Umar ibn al-Khattab. Much Sufism that developed among the Shi'a during the medieval period incorporated elements of the Sunni Sufi silsilas, yet practitioners of that Sufism would consider themselves to be Twelver Shi'a. There are different 'Alawi groups - so which ones are you referring to? In the early period, the name 'Alawi was just another name for the Shi 'a of 'Ali [as]; the term 'Alawi also came to be use for the descendents of Abu Talib's [ra] household; there are also Sunni 'Alawis descended from Imam al-Hasan [as]. You say which ones are correct and by what criteria: correct from what perspective? A Sunni perspective? A Shi'i perspective? A secular perspective? Please clarify.

 This statement is not correct.

The name of Twelvers came from the Prophetic statement that my successors will be twelve. This most authentic Hadeeth is narrated in main Sunni books including Bukhari, Muslim, Tirmithi, Ibn Maajah, Musnad Ibn Hanbal hundreds of Hadeeth books.

While all Muslim scholars believe that the Prophet said this, but only Shia Muslims follow the Prophetic teachings by following the Twelve successors.

In fact every Muslim must believe and follow the Twelve Imams If he really wants to abide to the Prophetic orders.

The Osooli and Akhbari and Shaikhi are not different sects, as all of them believe and follow the Twelve Imams from Ahlul Bayt (AS), but some of their scholars have their attitude to derive the Islamic rules from the Hadeeths.

The criteria to know the truth among all the different opinions and sects is the authentic evidence from Quran and authentic Hadeeth.

Wassalam.